BEIJING/WASHINGTON, September 21 (Reuters) – In the four months since the leaders of the two global superpowers last met, Xi Jinping has overseen a surge in China’s trade with the world while Donald Trump has struggled with falling approval ratings at home.
That shift in fortunes has tempered expectations for their summit in Washington this week, analysts say, with Xi in no rush to make concessions and Trump constrained by a costly war with Iran that has hurt both his popularity and Americans’ wallets.
While thorny issues like Taiwan may surface, the main focus of the September 24 meeting is whether the leaders will signal an extension to a trade truce struck last year that averted a major shock to the global economy.
“Xi is not really looking for anything tangible. He wants to extend the gentleman’s agreement with Trump so that China has time to fortify itself,” said Jon Czin, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution who formerly served as China director at the US National Security Council.
‘LIVING IN XI’S WORLD’
White House officials have sought to downplay the potential for major breakthroughs. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng helmed preparatory talks in New York on Sunday aimed at teeing up some potential agreements on AI guardrails and trade in non-sensitive products.
That is a far cry from Trump’s vow when he returned to office in 2025 to use tariffs to address a trade imbalance with China that was “killing” the United States.
But since agreeing the truce with Xi in October of that year, his attention has been divided among myriad other foreign policy battles, from the wars in Iran and Ukraine to disputes with Europe over free speech.
China has faced its own challenges, such as slowing domestic demand and a protracted property crisis, but the export juggernaut that Trump sought to tame has kept roaring in what economists are increasingly referring to as China Shock 2.0.
China’s global trade surplus is on pace to top $1 trillion for a second straight year.
While US efforts to curb the cheap parcels that online retailers such as Shein and Temu rely on have worked, more than half of the roughly 6,500 product categories China sold to the US so far this year have grown compared to 2025. A delegation of Chinese business leaders, potentially including some firms facing US regulatory scrutiny as they seek greater market access, is set to accompany Xi to Washington.
The Trump administration “thought they could use massive unilateral pressure to force China to make concessions, and that did not occur,” said Scott Kennedy, an expert on the US-China economic relationship at Washington-based think tank CSIS.
“Now this is Xi Jinping’s world, and we’re all living in it.”
