Visitors and electronic screens displaying Japan’s Nikkei stock quotation board are reflected on window glasses as the share average surged past an all-time record high scaled in December 1989, inside a building in Tokyo, Japan February 22, 2024. REUTERS
SYDNEY, Feb 23 (Reuters) – Wall Street futures and the dollar slid in Asia on Monday as confusion over U.S. tariffs revived the “sell America” trade, while confidence in the entire AI sector was set to be tested by results from tech-diva Nvidia this week.
Gold gained and oil prices eased ahead of another round of talks between the United States and Iran due in Geneva on Thursday, with the risk of U.S. military strikes lingering if a deal is not done.
Uncertainty loomed large after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs, leading him to announce a new 10% rate on the rest of the world, only to then lift it to 15% in a move that even seemed to surprise some of his own officials.
“The tariff landscape is now more uncertain than before, uncertainty is not good news for any economy or market,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB.
“Unless common sense prevails, we could be entering a circular process where new tariffs are announced, then potentially overturned, only for new tariffs to be announced, and we do the dance again.”
It was not yet clear when these tariffs would be imposed, what might be excluded and whether every country would be slapped with 15%. Some, including the UK and Australia, had 10% tariff rates under the former rules, while many countries in Asia had higher rates.
With so much up in the air Asian markets were mixed, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.9% in light trade.
Japan’s Nikkei was shut for a holiday but futures traded down 0.8% at 56,675 versus a cash close of 56,825.
The chance of lower tariffs helped South Korea extend its bull run with a 0.5% rise, having already jumped 5.5% last week to all-time highs. Taiwan followed with an increase of 1.2% to a record peak.
“From the perspective of most Asian economies, the events of the last few days will lower the effective US tariff rate, at least in the short run,” noted analysts at Goldman Sachs.
“China will enjoy the largest decline, 6.6pp by our estimate, followed by several South and Southeast Asian economies.”
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For Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both eased 0.5%, while FTSE futures fell 0.2%.
S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% and Nasdaq futures dropped 1.0% ahead of earnings from Nvidia (NVDA.O), which are sure to cause waves given the tech behemoth makes up almost 8% of the S&P 500 index.
The world’s most valuable company is expected to post a 71% rise in earnings per share to $7.76, though estimates range from as low as $6.28 to as high as $9.68. Options imply its shares could shift by at least 6% in either direction on the announcement.
The Treasury market had been sideswiped by the tariff news as it raised the risk the U.S. government would have to repay around $170 billion in revenue. Such an outcome would, on paper, widen the fiscal deficit by half a percentage point to around 6.6% of GDP.
The holiday in Japan meant cash Treasuries were not trading, but 10-year note futures nudged up 4 ticks as shares slipped.
The market had also been tugged two ways by mixed data with economic growth badly missing forecasts in the December quarter, but core inflation surprising on the high side.
That saw the probability of a June rate cut from the Federal Reserve come in to around 52%, from over 60% a week ago, and had left the dollar firmer on the week.
That changed on Monday with the dollar under pressure amid speculation the chaos over tariffs could shake investor confidence in U.S. assets.
The dollar shed 0.4% on the Japanese yen to 154.40 , while the euro added 0.3% to $1.1821 .
The dollar also slid 0.5% on the Swiss franc to 0.7724 , while the selling spread to Bitcoin which lost 4.3% to $64,698 .
In commodity markets, gold gained a safe-haven bid and firmed 1.1% to $5,159 an ounce . Silver climbed 3.2% to $87.25 per ounce , after climbing almost 8% on Friday.
Oil prices were choppy, unwinding some of the gains made last week when Trump said the U.S. military could strike specific targets in Iran amid a large-scale build up of forces in the region.
Brent fell 1.3% to $70.84 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 1.3% to $65.61 per barrel.
Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Lincoln Feast.
