Morning Bid: Inflation to set the tone for ECB

The highlight for the European day on Tuesday will be flash euro zone inflation figures for May, which come ahead of an expected rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) later in the week.

Expectations are for consumer prices to have slowed to an annual 2.0% last month after April’s larger-than-expected 2.2% rise, but what the reading means for the ECB’s rate trajectory will be the question on investors’ minds.

The ECB is considered almost certain to cut its rates by a quarter point to 2.0% on Thursday, but traders are sensing a pause will then follow as the economy holds up better than anticipated and longer-term inflation worries creep back.

U.S. tariff uncertainty, heightened further by ambiguity over court rulings on the legality of the tariffs, makes the backdrop challenging as the ECB weighs the impact to business activity against implications for inflation further out.

And in more tariff news, the Trump administration wants countries to provide their best offer on trade negotiations by Wednesday, as officials seek to accelerate talks with multiple partners ahead of a self-imposed deadline in just five weeks.

President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies continue to cast a pall over markets, and the dollar fell anew to a six-week low on Tuesday on signs of fragility in the U.S. economy.

Talks between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected this week as trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies simmer. It remains to be seen whether it will be a “beautiful” chat or if things could take a turn for the worse.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

– Euro zone flash CPI (May)

– U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report (April)

– Fed’s Goolsbee, Logan speak