People walk on the illuminated bank of Qianhai lake in the historical Shichahai district, ahead of Lunar New Year celebrations welcoming the Year of the Fire Horse, in Beijing, China, February 15, 2026. REUTERS
BEIJING, April 9 (Reuters) – Chinese banks likely extended significantly more new loans in March than in February, according to a Reuters poll on Thursday, driven by improved credit demand and a seasonal rebound.
Banks in China are expected to have issued around 3.4 trillion yuan ($497.61 billion) in net new yuan loans last month, up sharply from the 900 billion yuan in February, based on the average estimate of 17 economists polled by Reuters.
March is typically a strong month for lending, as activity recovers after the Chinese New Year lull and banks accelerate loan issuance to meet first-quarter targets.
- The survey showed loan expectations still lower than 3.64 trillion yuan issued in March 2025.
- “Bills discounting rate has been moving sideways throughout March, indicating steady but not really strong credit demand,” Citi Research said in a note.
- Last month, China’s factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in a year underpinned by improved demand, official data showed.
- The Chinese central bank pledged to ramp up financial backing for domestic demand, innovation and small businesses, but has signalled no imminent broad-based rate cut.
- Goldman Sachs on Sunday dropped its call for a 10 basis-point rate cut this year, saying the central bank would only ease policy “if the growth outlook deteriorates significantly.”
- Broader M2 money supply was expected to have grown 8.9% last month from a year earlier, slightly slower than the 9% in February, the poll showed.
- Outstanding yuan loans were estimated to have grown 5.9% in March from a year before, slowing from 6% growth the previous month.
- Total social financing – a broad measure of credit and liquidity – likely more than doubled to 5.4 trillion yuan in March from 2.38 trillion yuan the previous month.
Reporting by Shi Bu, Kevin Yao; Polling by Renusri K and Rahul Trivedi in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in Shanghai; Editing by Eileen Soreng
