Taylor Swift greets members of the audience as she accepts the award for Video of the Year for “Fortnight,” with Post Malone, during the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards in Elmont, New York, U.S., September 11, 2024. REUTERS
File photo: Universal Music Group logo and stock graph seen displayed in this illustration taken, May 3, 2022. REUTERS
Sept 17 (Reuters) – Universal Music Group said on Tuesday it expects annual core profit growth of more than 10% through to 2028 on higher subscription revenue, expanded partnerships and boosted by the superfans of its artists such as Taylor Swift, BTS and Drake.
The world’s biggest music label, which announced its financial targets through 2028 ahead of a capital markets day, also said it expects compound annual revenue growth of 7% in the period.
The forecast was better than the consensus outlook for 6.1% annual revenue growth and 8.8% annual adjusted EBITDA growth, according to ING.
Analysts have said the capital markets day, to be held at London’s famed Abbey Road Studios, will be an opportunity for the group to spell out how it plans to revive slowing subscriber and streaming growth, which triggered a 30% slump in its stock in late July after second-quarter figures fell short of expectations.
In Tuesday’s outlook, UMG said it sees annual subscription revenue growth of between 8% and 10%, higher than the consensus of 6.6%, as quoted by ING.
J.P. Morgan said the targets are consistent with its forecasts and better than consensus.
“We believe consensus forecasts are too conservative on subscription growth and other revenue streams and EBITDA forecasts do not fully reflect operational gearing and announced cost savings over the next 3 years,” it adds.
UMG expects a free cash flow conversion rate (before investing activity) of between 60% and 70%, it said.
In mid-August, UMG announced an expanded agreement with Facebook-parent Meta Platforms to create new opportunities for its artists and songwriters across Meta’s social platforms.
The company’s second-quarter subscription revenue growth slowed to 6.9% from 12.5% in the first quarter, missing the 11.1% estimate in a company-compiled consensus cited by Barclays.
For 2023, UMG reported an 11% increase in adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of 2.4 billion euros ($2.67 billion). At constant exchange rates, EBITDA gained 14.6%.
UMG shares were up 3.4% in morning trading.
($1 = 0.8988 euros)
Reporting by Michal Aleksandrowicz in Gdansk; Editing by Sharon Singleton
