Goldman Sachs raises Q4 Brent, WTI crude price forecast amid longer Hormuz disruption

March 12 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs raised its Brent, WTI crude oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $71/67 per barrel from $66/62 as it sees longer ​disruption to oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz due to ‌the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Brent prices have gained more than 36% since the war began on February 28, while WTI has risen about 39%. Both benchmarks briefly topped $119 on ​Monday, their highest levels since mid‑2022.

The fighting has effectively shut the ​Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers stranded for more than a week ⁠and forcing producers to suspend output as storage nears capacity.

Goldman analysts in ​a note on Thursday said they now assume 21 days of low Strait ​of Hormuz (SoH) oil flows at 10% of normal levels followed by a 30-day gradual recovery, compared with their earlier expectation of a 10-day disruption.

The bank also said that daily ​oil prices are likely to exceed their 2008 peak if SoH flows ​remain depressed through March.

Goldman incorporated a larger policy response in its models, wherein 254 million barrels ‌of ⁠actual global special petroleum reserve (SPR) releases and 31mb of draws in Russian crude would reduce the hit to global commercial oil inventories by nearly 50%.

The International Energy Agency on Wednesday agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from ​strategic stockpiles to combat ​a spike in ⁠global crude prices since the start of the war, with the U.S. contributing the bulk of the supply.

In Goldman’s base case ​where Strait of Hormuz flows start recovering March 21 onwards, ​it assumes ⁠IEA member states won’t fully release the 400 million barrels available.

This is because the bank assumes a logistical limit of 3 million barrels per day on draws from ⁠the ​Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) SPR and ​a four-week phase-out of releases through early June when WTI prices are expected to moderate to ​the low $70s.