Fed’s Miran says data suggests Americans aren’t shouldering tariff hit

(Reuters) – Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran on Monday argued the Trump administration’s policy of trade tariffs has proved more benign than many had feared, in comments that argued that foreigners and their firms are the ones primarily paying for the tax hikes, rather than Americans.

The comments by Miran, who was appointed by President Donald Trump last year to fill an unexpected vacancy on the Fed’s Board of Governors, appeared to contradict data showing that Americans bear the burden of paying for tariffs.

“I think the world has been coming in my direction on a number of issues,” Miran said at an appearance at the Boston University Questrom School of Business. He pointed to tariffs and their impact on the economy and noted that a year ago, at the start of the second Trump administration, there were widespread fears that the import tax surge would damage the economy.

“I think very gradually over time” many experts have “been moving in my direction” and see that the impact of the tariffs has been “quite muted” in terms of what they’ve done to the economy, the official said.

Miran also disputed a widespread view in the economics community that tariffs are paid for by American citizens in the form of higher prices, rather than by the exporting nations by way of lower profit margins. The idea that tariffs would not be paid by Americans was a key plank of the Trump administration as it started its aggressive trade actions against a wide range of countries, including America’s closest allies.

Trump even acknowledged late last year that Americans were facing higher prices due to his tax increases, saying that while the policy was a net positive for the U.S. economy, “I think that they might be paying something.”

The Fed has said that a notable part of inflation overshooting the 2% target this year is due to tariff pressures, even as many officials have also noted that tariff impacts have proved more muted than expected and likely represent a one-time increase in the price level that will not lead to lasting inflation gains.

Research puts the burden of paying most of the tariffs on Americans, with the Yale Budget Lab saying in a report,  from late last month that the annual median cost of the taxes stands at around $1,400 per household.

Miran said accounting issues appear to camouflage the real burden of the tariffs. In data, “it looks like a U.S. entity is bearing the burden, but it’s actually just the U.S. subsidiary of a foreign company,” Miran said.

“It’s entirely inappropriate to say, to say that we can conclude from those data…that U.S. agents are bearing the burden of the tariff, because some of those companies are actually subsidiaries of foreign companies,” he said.

Miran was formerly a top economic adviser to the Trump administration before joining the Fed, and until recently, he was controversially on leave from the White House while serving at the central bank.

Miran also said that tariffs joined with other changes in government policy are helping to improve the longer-run outlook for government finances. “Tariff revenues are going to be significant in terms of reducing the primary deficit,” he said.

The legality of the tariffs is currently under consideration by the Supreme Court, which could overrule them. Trump has warned such a decision would be a disaster.