Trump’s tariffs are largest US tax hike since 1968, JPM warns

April 4, 2025

JPMorgan Chase Bank is seen in New York City, U.S., March 21, 2023. REUTERS

People walk by the JP Morgan & Chase Co. building in New York on October 24, 2013. REUTERS

Summary

JPMorgan raises global recession risk to 60% due to tariffs
Tariff impact could be magnified by retaliation and supply chain disruptions
Sustained trade policies may lower U.S. growth long-term, JPMorgan warns

NEW YORK, (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s cumulative tariff hikes amount to about 22%, which would be equivalent to the biggest U.S. tax increase since 1968, according to a note from JPMorgan.

The bank has raised its risk of global recession to 60%, up from 40% previously, and said the tariff impact could be “magnified by retaliation, supply chain disruptions, and a sentiment shock.”

JPMorgan adds that these policy actions could evolve in the coming weeks, that “the U.S. and global expansions stand on solid ground and should be able to withstand a modest-sized shock.”

Reporting by Stephen Culp; Editing by Sandra Maler