JPMorgan Chase Bank is seen in New York City, U.S., March 21, 2023. REUTERS
People walk by the JP Morgan & Chase Co. building in New York on October 24, 2013. REUTERS
Summary
- JPMorgan raises global recession risk to 60% due to tariffs
- Tariff impact could be magnified by retaliation and supply chain disruptions
- Sustained trade policies may lower U.S. growth long-term, JPMorgan warns
NEW YORK, (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s cumulative tariff hikes amount to about 22%, which would be equivalent to the biggest U.S. tax increase since 1968, according to a note from JPMorgan.
The bank has raised its risk of global recession to 60%, up from 40% previously, and said the tariff impact could be “magnified by retaliation, supply chain disruptions, and a sentiment shock.”
JPMorgan adds that these policy actions could evolve in the coming weeks, that “the U.S. and global expansions stand on solid ground and should be able to withstand a modest-sized shock.”
Reporting by Stephen Culp; Editing by Sandra Maler